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Thailand Brief
No. 32 – July 4, 2025
Legal & Regulatory Updates
Cannabis dispensaries to convert to medical clinics under tighter regulations |
Thailand’s Department of Thai Traditional and Alternative Medicine announced that all cannabis dispensaries must transition into licensed medical clinics or hospitals if they wish to continue operating legally. The new ministerial regulation, expected within three months, will require dispensaries to have medical professionals on-site authorized to prescribe cannabis products.
The government aims to end recreational sales and limit distribution strictly to medical use. Of the 18,000 dispensaries nationwide, 12,000 will need to renew licenses in November and comply with the new rules. The department has trained over 9,000 doctors to issue prescriptions and plans to introduce measures to control cannabis product prices. [Bangkok Post] |
Bangkok governor proposes regulations to limit LED billboard brightness |
The Governor of Bangkok, Chadchart Sittipunt, has proposed a draft Bangkok Act to regulate the brightness of LED advertising signs, citing increasing complaints from residents about excessive light pollution along expressways and other urban areas.
The initiative, presented during the Bangkok Metropolitan Council’s 2025 ordinary session, is intended to establish clear, enforceable standards for permissible lighting levels. Under the proposal, daytime brightness would be capped at 5,000 candelas per square meter, while nighttime emissions would be limited to 500 candelas per square meter.
Existing laws, including the Building Control Act of 2015, do not define precise thresholds for nuisance lighting. The draft act seeks to close this gap by clarifying what constitutes a disturbance to public well-being or a hazard to drivers.
The Bangkok Metropolitan Council approved the draft and formed a special committee to review and propose amendments within 60 days. [The Nation] |
Telecom regulator delays endorsement of spectrum auction amid concerns over competition |
Thailand’s National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) has postponed its decision on whether to endorse the results of the country’s most recent mobile spectrum auction, citing concerns about the integrity of the process and potential barriers to market entry.
The auction, held on June 29, saw only two qualified bidders—subsidiaries of Thailand’s last remaining mobile giants—Advanced Wireless Network (part of Advanced Info Service) and True Move H Universal Communication (part of True Corporation). AWN secured 30 MHz of 2100 MHz spectrum for THB 14.8 billion (approximately USD 400 million), while True won 20 MHz on 1500 MHz and 70 MHz on 2300 MHz for a combined THB 26.4 billion (around USD 713 million). No bids were submitted for the 850 MHz band.
NBTC Chairman Sarana Boonbaichaiyapruck said the board received the auction documentation too late for meaningful review and rescheduled deliberation to July 6. By regulation, the board must make a resolution within seven days of the auction.
Consumer advocates, including the Thailand Consumer Council, have formally petitioned the NBTC to reject the auction outcome, arguing the process discouraged new entrants. In particular, they criticized a condition requiring winners to achieve 90 percent population coverage in every district within five years—a standard not imposed in prior NBTC auctions. [Bangkok Post] |
Experts call for overhaul of state procurement after tourism app crashes |
Technical specialists are urging the Thai government to reform its procurement criteria for IT projects after repeated crashes of the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) registration system for a THB 1.76 billion (approximately USD 47 million) co-payment scheme to subsidize domestic hotel stays.
The system failed under heavy user demand on launch day, eroding public trust and sparking criticism. Experts attributed the breakdown to inadequate queuing mechanisms and the practice of awarding contracts solely to the lowest bidder, which often leads to compromised technical standards.
Specialists recommended shifting to value-based procurement that prioritizes proven technical capability over price alone, including requirements for bidders to demonstrate experience handling at least 10,000 transactions per second and to conduct rigorous load testing.
TAT said it switched from using Krungthai Bank’s Pao Tang app to its own “Amazing Thailand” platform to improve data ownership and security. However, critics questioned whether an unproven system built by a recently established company was fit to handle such demand.
The agency defended the complex registration process as necessary to combat fraud, citing past losses from the “We Travel Together” program. [Bangkok Post] |
Chinese investment fraud suspect arrested after nearly a year overstaying visa |
Thai immigration police have arrested a 53-year-old Chinese woman in Bangkok accused of orchestrating a large-scale investment scam in China that defrauded victims of about CNY 100 million (approximately THB 500 million / USD 13.5 million).
Acting on a tip, authorities raided a house in Suan Luang district where six foreign nationals were staying. The suspect failed to present her passport and was found to have overstayed her Thai visa by 337 days.
According to the Chinese Embassy, she co-founded a fraudulent company posing as a global investment and technology firm that lured investors with promises of high returns. Participants were required to pay significant membership fees ranging from CNY 7,000 to CNY 100,000 (approximately THB 31,600–450,000 / USD 850–12,900).
She has been charged with overstaying and is being held pending deportation. [Bangkok Post] |
Domestic Politics & Governance
Economy, Trade, and Investment
Weak exports, slow tourism recovery, and political turmoil undermine economic prospects |
Thailand faces mounting economic and financial headwinds in the second half of 2025, as both domestic and external pressures converge to weigh on growth and corporate performance.
The World Bank has sharply downgraded Thailand’s growth forecast to just 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2026, marking one of the lowest expansions in Southeast Asia. The downgrade reflects three primary drags: persistently weak exports, especially with looming U.S. tariffs as high as 36 percent; a slower-than-expected tourism recovery, with Chinese arrivals unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels before mid-2026; and subdued domestic demand as households deleverage and private investment remains sluggish. The suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over an ethics case has further fueled political uncertainty, increasing the risk of delayed approval of the 2026 fiscal budget and the rollout of public infrastructure projects—factors that analysts warn could further erode investor confidence and spill over into private sector activity. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2]
Thailand’s fiscal position is deteriorating, with the deficit widening to 6.3 percent of gross domestic product in the first half of 2025 on the back of stimulus measures. Public debt has risen to 64.4 percent of GDP, up 23 percentage points since 2019, limiting the government’s capacity to respond to future shocks.
Analysts have correspondingly cut their 2025 GDP forecast to an average of 1.87 percent and revised down earnings-per-share projections for listed companies. The Stock Exchange of Thailand is now expected to end the year near 1,231 points, with market sentiment undermined by slowing economic momentum and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. [Bangkok Post 3]
Fitch Ratings—a major international credit rating agency that evaluates the creditworthiness of companies and countries—highlighted structural vulnerabilities, particularly in the petrochemical and energy sectors, where overcapacity, weaker global demand, and an influx of cheap Chinese goods are pressuring profitability. Fitch expects the petrochemical sector to remain under strain until at least 2028. Although energy and building materials firms benefit from public investment and decarbonization policies, leverage remains elevated after years of expansion. [Bangkok Post 4]
In parallel, Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Roong Mallikamas—one of two shortlisted candidates to lead the central bank—warned that the U.S. tariff threat magnifies Thailand’s structural weaknesses. She underscored the need for continued monetary flexibility, signaling that further rate cuts remain possible if growth deteriorates further. [Bangkok Post 5]
While inflation is projected to remain subdued—averaging only 0.3 percent this year and 1 percent in 2026—analysts and the World Bank stress that this reflects persistent demand-side weakness rather than healthy disinflation. |
Critical Thai-U.S. tariff negotiations intensify |
(Thailand is racing to secure a trade agreement with the United States before a July 9 deadline, as President Donald Trump prepares to notify dozens of countries of steep new tariffs under his reciprocal trade policy.
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira is leading a high-level delegation in Washington, holding back-to-back meetings with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the US Chamber of Commerce, and other stakeholders. Pichai has presented additional proposals aimed at moderating tariffs, while emphasizing Thailand’s role as a “key link” in global supply chains and reaffirming the country’s commitment to a transparent, business-friendly investment climate.
The urgency stems from Trump’s policy shift away from individual trade agreements toward simpler blanket tariff rates. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, roughly 100 countries will soon receive letters specifying reciprocal tariffs—generally 10 percent—but Thailand has been singled out for a higher proposed tariff of 36 percent on its exports. If no agreement is reached, Thai products face this steep tariff as early as next week.
Meanwhile, Vietnam has finalized a benchmark deal imposing a 20 percent tariff on direct exports and a 40 percent tariff on transshipments, especially Chinese-origin goods routed through Vietnamese ports. Thai negotiators fear that similar conditions could apply, particularly targeting Chinese inputs like solar cells, electric vehicle parts, and electronics that transit Thailand before entering the US market.
Analysts see Thailand’s smaller trade surplus with the US—around USD 45 billion compared to Vietnam’s over USD 100 billion—as a potential factor for securing more favorable rates. Industry experts estimate Thailand might still face tariffs in the range of 15–20 percent, depending on final negotiations.
Concerns are also growing that any agreement could force Thailand to open sensitive sectors such as livestock to US imports at reduced or zero tariffs, potentially disrupting domestic producers.
In parallel, the Trump administration has acknowledged the difficulty of completing tailored agreements with over 170 countries. Trump told reporters he now prefers notifying most partners of fixed tariff rates rather than engaging in detailed negotiations, with only a few exceptions for more comprehensive deals. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2] [Bangkok Post 3] |
Infrastructure, Industry, and Environment
Minimum wage hike for hotel sector triggers concerns about uneven impact |
Thailand has introduced a nationwide minimum daily wage of THB 400 (USD 11.60) for hotel workers, aiming to boost living standards and domestic spending. The policy, covering all registered hotels with at least 50 rooms or entertainment facilities, raises wages well above existing provincial floors in many areas.
Industry groups warn that hotels in provinces with weak tourism recovery, such as Khon Kaen, face severe cost pressures without the pricing power seen in Bangkok or Phuket. Business chambers and the Federation of Thai SMEs caution the measure risks layoffs, informal employment, and closures as operators struggle to absorb rising labor, energy, and raw material costs.
Some associations questioned the timing and uniform scope of the policy, suggesting it may be politically motivated. Employers in stronger markets indicated more capacity to adapt, while others called for phased implementation and support. Officials insist the move will reduce inequality and help sustain recovery, but observers note it may hamper competitiveness in regions still reliant on domestic demand. [Bangkok Post] |
Cabinet approves large-scale electric bus leasing plan to modernize Bangkok transit |
Thailand has approved a major initiative to electrify public transport in Bangkok, authorizing the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) to lease 1,520 air-conditioned electric buses over seven years. The project, valued at approximately THB 15.35 billion (USD 421 million), marks a strategic pivot away from earlier reliance on natural gas-powered vehicles and underscores the government’s commitment to low-emission mobility.
The program, covering fiscal years 2025 through 2032, is structured to relieve BMTA of ownership and maintenance burdens. The budget allocates THB 10.13 billion (USD 278 million) for vehicle leasing, THB 3.24 billion (USD 89 million) for long-term maintenance, and THB 967 million (USD 26 million) for charging infrastructure.
Authorities project the initiative will generate THB 52.65 billion (USD 1.45 billion) in revenue—primarily from fares and advertising—resulting in an estimated net profit of THB 19.85 billion (USD 547 million) over its lifecycle. By transitioning to electric buses, BMTA expects to cut operating costs to roughly one-third of current diesel and compressed natural gas levels, while reducing urban emissions and aligning with national sustainability targets. |
Insurance claims from March earthquake could reach USD 1.35 billion |
Thailand’s general insurance sector is bracing for total claims of up to THB 50 billion (USD 1.35 billion) stemming from the powerful earthquake that struck Myanmar and Thailand in March 2025. According to the Thai General Insurance Association (TGIA), insurers have already received about THB 30 billion (USD 810 million) in claims across 150,000 cases, with the process expected to continue into September.
Among the most severe losses was the collapse of the under-construction 30-story State Audit Office building in Bangkok’s Chatuchak district, which killed 96 people. Forensic reviews are ongoing to determine whether structural defects or substandard construction contributed to the collapse. If confirmed, the insurer could deny the claim unless it is proven the damage was solely caused by the earthquake.
The disaster has sharply increased public awareness of catastrophe risk. TGIA President Somporn Suebthawilkul noted that demand for earthquake-inclusive and personal property insurance is expected to rise, with higher premiums likely for catastrophe cover later this year.
In addition to quake-related claims, the TGIA is moving forward with reforms across multiple lines of business. It plans to expand flexible health insurance allowing policyholders to choose between public and private hospitals, though premiums for private hospital coverage will reflect costs, which are on average 6.1 times higher than public care.
On the motor insurance front, following a deadly school bus fire in late 2024, the TGIA will raise the compensation cap for road accident victims from THB 10 million (USD 270,000) to THB 20 million (USD 540,000). The higher limit will not result in premium increases, as insurers plan to manage the additional liability via reinsurance.
Despite economic uncertainty, Thailand’s non-life insurance sector is forecast to grow by 1.5–2.5 percent this year, with premiums projected to reach THB 270 billion (USD 7.3 billion), supported by higher demand for disaster and motor coverage. Insurers are expected to accelerate adoption of artificial intelligence to improve underwriting accuracy and develop more accessible, low-premium products distributed via digital channels. [Bangkok Post] |
Saha Pathana Inter-Holding and Bank of China (Thai) sign strategic cooperation agreement |
Saha Pathana Inter-Holding Public Company Limited (SPI), part of Thailand’s Saha Group—one of the country’s largest consumer product conglomerates—has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Bank of China (Thai) Public Company Limited (BOCT) to deepen Thai-Chinese business collaboration and promote sustainable economic growth.
Under the agreement, BOCT will serve as a financial facilitator and transaction partner, supporting SPI in expanding its consumer product reach in China, attracting Chinese investment into Thailand, and helping establish regional headquarters for Chinese enterprises. The bank will also provide advisory services on international regulations and promote ESG-aligned business practices. [Bangkok Post] |